Home > Diatribe > 83rd Annual Academy Awards Predictions

83rd Annual Academy Awards Predictions

This Academy Awards are this Sunday, and now is the time to make my predictions for who will win. This year is one of the most uncertain years to predict who will win. There are very few slam dunk categories to predict. My predictions are in bold.

Best Picture
Black Swan, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
The Fighter, David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
Inception, Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
The Kids Are All Right, Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
The King’s Speech, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
127 Hours, Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
The Social Network, Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceàn Chaffin, Producers
Toy Story 3, Darla K. Anderson, Producer
True Grit Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
Winter’s Bone, Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

I think The Social Network is the movies of the year, and it deserves to win, but deserves got nothing to do with it. The Social Network seemed like the film to win it until all the Guilds awards went to The King’s Speech. I still think The Social Network could win, but The King’s Speech is the type of film that the Academy loves.

Black Swan, Darren Aronofsky
The Fighter, David O. Russell
The King’s Speech, Tom Hooper
The Social Network, David Fincher
True Grit, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

I think this year is where Picture and Director will split. I would have went with Tom Hooper, had he won the BAFTA for Best Director, but Fincher took it. I think the Academy will want to reward The Social Network with something and that film above all, was masterfully visualized for the screen by its director.

Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in Biutiful
Jeff Bridges in True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth in The King’s Speech
James Franco in 127 Hours

This is one of the few easy categories to predict. Firth was nominated last year for A Single Man, and he will get it because he didn’t get it last year.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in The Fighter
John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner in The Town
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech

Bale has won all the major awards before the Oscar, and he gives the kind of showy performance that the Oscars love. Rush could pull up an upset if The King’s Speech sweeps all the awards on Oscar night.

Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine

This is a race between Portman and Bening. Bening is a veteran who has been nominated before, but Best Actress tends to go to the young hot star.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo in The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom

This is the toughest of the main categories to predict. I’m going with Leo even though she seemed to piss off some people when she took out her own ads promoting her to the award. Maybe Steinfeld could win or Carter could ride in on The King’s Speech wave. I’ll play it simple and predict that her own ads

Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
The Illusionist Sylvain Chomet
Toy Story 3 Lee Unkrich

This is one of those easy categories to call. Done deal.

Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland, Robert Stromberg (Art Direction) and Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Stuart Craig (Art Direction) and Stephenie McMillan (Set Decoration)
Inception, Guy Hendrix Dyas (Art Direction) and Larry Dias and Doug Mowat (Set Decoration)
The King’s Speech, Eve Stewart (Art Direction) and Judy Farr (Set Decoration)
True Grit, Jess Gonchor (Art Direction) and Nancy Haigh (Set Decoration)

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that The King’s Speech will win some of these technical categories because The Academy will love the film and just be lazy and vote for it here. I think Inception deserves to win, and it could, but I’ll just go with The King’s Speech.

Black Swan, Matthew Libatique
Inception, Wally Pfister
The King’s Speech, Danny Cohen
The Social Network, Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit, Roger Deakins

Deakins has been nominated 9 times and has never won, I think this is his time. True Grit has to win something and It’s going his way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Deakins continues his losing streak, he did lose the Cinematographer’s Guild award to Inception.

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland, Colleen Atwood
I Am Love, Antonella Cannarozzi
The King’s Speech, Jenny Beavan
The Tempest, Sandy Powell
True Grit, Mary Zophres

I think people will vote for The King’s Speech because they like the film and will just vote for it here. Alice in Wonderland could win here, but I’m betting on the fact that most Oscar voters are lazy and just go with the film they liked.

Documentary (Feature)
Exit through the Gift Shop, Banksy and Jaimie D’Cruz
Gasland, Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
Inside Job, Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
Restrepo, Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
Waste Land, Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

Here is another one of those tough categories to call. It could really go with any of the five. I know that predicting Exit through the Gift Shop is a risky call, but here is my reasoning. In order to vote for Best Documentary, you have to prove that you have seen all five films. I’m betting that the voters who do see the Banksy film will really fall for it and think it’s the best among the five. I might have too much faith in the Academy, but I’ll go out on a limb in this category.

Documentary (Short Subject)
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

Like almost everyone else, I haven’t seen any of these films. I’m going with the documentary about an Israeli school for refugees.

Film Editing
Black Swan, Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter, Pamela Martin
The King’s Speech, Tariq Anwar
127 Hours, Jon Harris
The Social Network, Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

The Social Network is so masterfully edited it has to win. The film did win the Editor’s Guild award, so this only confirms my prediction.

Foreign Language Film
Biutiful, Mexico
Dogtooth, Greece
In a Better World, Denmark
Incendies, Canada
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi), Algeria

This is always a tough category to predict. Dogtooth is too weird and Biutiful might win because among the five, it’s the most well-known. I’m going to give it to In a Better World, because it seems the most friendly among the five.

Barney’s Version, Adrien Morot
The Way Back, Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
The Wolfman, Rick Baker and Dave Elsey

The Wolfman had the most showy makeup among the three, so it’s going to win.

Music (Original Score)
How to Train Your Dragon, John Powell
Inception, Hans Zimmer
The King’s Speech, Alexandre Desplat
127 Hours, A.R. Rahman
The Social Network, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

The Social Network’s unique and fascinating score deserves to win, but I think it may be too modern for the Academy’s old, traditional taste.

Music (Original Song)
Coming Home from Country Strong, Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
I See the Light from Tangled, Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
If I Rise from 127 Hours, Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
We Belong Together from Toy Story 3, Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

I don’t really have any clue about who will win, but most of the people who track the Oscars are giving it to Toy Story 3, so I’ll agree with them.

Short Film (Animated)
Day & Night, Teddy Newton
The Gruffalo, Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
Let’s Pollute, Geefwee Boedoe
The Lost Thing, Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary) Bastien Dubois

Day & Night is the most well-known of the animated shorts because it played in front of Toy Story 3.

Short Film (Live Action)
The Confession, Tanel Toom
The Crush, Michael Creagh
God of Love, Luke Matheny
Na Wewe, Ivan Goldschmidt
Wish 143, Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

Most Oscar pundits are picking God of Love. Categories like this are never easy to predict.

Sound Editing
Inception, Richard King
Toy Story 3, Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
Tron:Legacy, Gwendolyn Yates
True Grit, Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
Unstoppable, Mark P. Stoeckinger

My theory is that Inception has to win something and most of those wins will be in the technical categories.

Sound Mixing
Inception, Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
The King’s Speech, Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
Salt, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
The Social Network, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
True Grit, Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

I’ll give it to Inception. I would love if The Social Network won. True Grit might pull out a win here.

Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland, Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
Hereafter, Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
Inception, Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
Iron Man 2, Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick

The Academy will go with the smart blockbuster here, Inception.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
127 Hours, Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network, Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3, Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
True Grit, Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Winter’s Bone, Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

This is one of those easy categories to call. Sorkin’s screenplay is terrific and deserves to win.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Another Year, Written by Mike Leigh
The Fighter, Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
Inception, Written by Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right, Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
The King’s Speech, Screenplay by David Seidler

Seidler gets it for King’s Speech. No contest.

  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: