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Oscar Nomination Predictions

The nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards will be announced tomorrow morning at 5:38 am pacific time.

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict what and who will get nominated in the 8 major categories. We already know most of the films and actors that will get nominated, so the key will be to predict what the surprises will be tomorrow morning. Tomorrow I will have an in-depth analysis of the nominations after they are announced.

BEST PICTURE

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

I’m not totally confident that Winter’s Bone will make it in the final ten. 127 Hours could defiantly make it there instead of Winter’s Bone.

BEST DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network

Joel & Ethan Coen might make it in here instead of Russell, but The Fighter has demonstrated real strength in the run up nominations.

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

The 5th slot is a real toss up. Robert Duvall for Get Low or Javier Bardem for Biutiful could replace Gosling.

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

This is another case where the 5th slot is a toss-up. Even though Paramount is campaigning for Steinfeld in the Best Supporting Actress category, The Academy has the right to put her in any group they want. Steinfeld really is the lead performance in the film and I think The Academy will put her in it as a result. Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine or Lesley Manville for Another Year could slip in the 5th slot. An even bigger surprise would be Julianne Moore for The Kids Are All Right making it in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

I’m going to go out on a limb and say Hawkes makes it in due to his SAG nomination in this category. I could see Andrew Garfield making it in on The Social Network’s coat tails. The supporting categories are where we usually see surprise nominations and I think Hawkes might be that surprise.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

I really hope Weaver makes it in for Animal Kingdom, but I could see her getting shut out if Steinfeld gets nominated in the supporting category. Barbara Hershey from Black Swan might replace Kunis in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

The Town could make it in here since it got a WGA nomination.

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